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Imagine that sales of a certain product in your retail chain rise by 10%. It seems like a minor change. But the purchasing manager, not wanting to risk a shortage, orders 15% more from the distributor. The distributor hedges too and asks the manufacturer for 20% above the usual volume. The manufacturer buys raw materials with a small safety margin, and the supplier ends up with an order that is already 30% higher than actual demand in the store. None of the participants in the chain really knows what is happening at the final point of...

Imagine that sales of a certain product in your retail chain rise by 10%. It seems like a minor change. But the purchasing manager, not wanting to risk a shortage, orders 15% more from the distributor. The distributor hedges too and asks the manufacturer for 20% above the usual volume. The manufacturer buys raw materials with a small safety margin, and the supplier ends up with an order that is already 30% higher than actual demand in the store. None of the participants in the chain really knows what is happening at the final point of sale....